Mohammad Nayeem Hasan

Mohammad Nayeem Hasan

Biostatistician, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet

Research

Research interests

Dengue

Published:

Dengue virus (DENV) is an arthropod-transmitted, single-stranded RNA virus from the Flaviviridae family. Bangladesh, highly susceptible to severe outbreaks due to climate, location, and population density, requires analysis of meteorological factors to predict trends. This study employed five time series models and four statistical models to forecast and understand DENV cases (1). Dengue virus infection has significantly impacted Bangladesh, with record-high prevalence and fatalities in 2022. Favorable mosquito breeding conditions in June and July exacerbated the issue. Without a vaccine, enhancing awareness of dengues epidemiology and improving urban infrastructure to prevent mosquito breeding are crucial for better management (2). In 2022, Bangladesh recorded its highest dengue-related deaths (281) since 2000. Unlike previous years, the outbreak saw a late surge in cases and fatalities during cooler months (October–December), deviating from the usual August–September peak (3). The 2023 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh highlights the urgent need for improved epidemic control, with lessons from Bangladesh crucial for managing surges in other Southeast Asian countries and globally (4). This study aimed to compare dengue cases, deaths, case-fatality ratios, and meteorological factors between 2000–2010 and 2011–2022, analyzing trends, seasonality, and the impact of temperature and rainfall on dengue dynamics in Bangladesh (5). In 2023, Bangladesh experienced its largest and deadliest outbreak of Dengue virus (DENV), reporting the highest-ever recorded annual cases and deaths. We aimed to characterize the geographical transmission of the DENV in Bangladesh (6). In 2023, Bangladesh faced its worst dengue outbreak since 2000, highlighting the need for better prediction methods. This study uses machine learning, evaluating Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models to improve forecasting accuracy (7).

Recommended citation:
1. Hasan MN. (2023). "Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern." IJERPH. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20065152.
2. Hasan MN. (2023). "A short communication of 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: a continuous public health threat." Annals of Medicine & Surgery. https://doi.org/10.1097/MS9.0000000000000623.
3. Hasan MN. (2023). "The 2022 dengue outbreak in Bangladesh: hypotheses for the late resurgence of cases and fatalities." Journal of Medical Entomology. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjad057.
4. Hasan MN. (2023). "Bangladeshs 2023 Dengue outbreak – age/gender-related disparity in morbidity and mortality and geographic variability of epidemic burdens." IJID. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2023.08.026.
5. Hasan MN. (2024). "Two decades of endemic dengue in Bangladesh (2000–2022): trends, seasonality, and impact of temperature and rainfall patterns on transmission dynamics." Journal of Medical Entomology.. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjae001.
6. Hasan MN. (2023). "Shifting Geographical Transmission Patterns: Characterizing the 2023 Fatal Dengue Outbreak in Bangladesh." medRxiv (Preprint).. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.03.24.24304789.
7. Hasan MN. (2023). "Deep Learning Based Forecasting Models of Dengue Outbreak in Bangladesh: Comparative Analysis of LSTM, RNN, and GRU Models Using Multivariate Variables with a Two-Decade Dataset." IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSSES62373.2024.10561382.

Statistical Methodology

Published:

This study compares Logistic Regression and Linear Discriminant Analysis for predicting school attrition among female students in Bangladesh. By evaluating these methods effectiveness, we applied logistic regression to forecast attrition risk and compared the predictive and classification accuracy of both models using real data (1). Additionally, in response to Bangladeshs severe dengue outbreak in 2023, the study explores advanced machine learning techniques—GRU, RNN, and LSTM—to improve dengue forecasting. Unlike previous research, this study integrates a broader range of factors and algorithms, analyzing data from January 2000 to December 2022 to enhance prediction accuracy and support proactive public health measures (2).

Recommended citation:
1. Hasan MN. (2019). "A Comparison of Logistic Regression and Linear Discriminant Analysis in Predicting of Female Students Attrition from School in Bangladesh." IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/EICT48899.2019.9068776.
2. Hasan MN. (2024). "Deep Learning Based Forecasting Models of Dengue Outbreak in Bangladesh: Comparative Analysis of LSTM, RNN, and GRU Models Using Multivariate Variables with a Two-Decade Dataset." IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSSES62373.2024.10561382.

Child Health

Published:

The global increase in cesarean deliveries (C-sections), including in Bangladesh, has raised concerns about its impact on maternal and child health. This study aimed to explore the link between C-sections and childhood diseases, and identify key factors influencing these diseases (1). In Bangladesh, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are a major cause of child mortality, with about 25% of deaths among children under five attributed to ARI annually. This research investigated whether using alternative fuels instead of traditional solid fuels impacts ARI rates in children (2). Cognitive and socio-emotional development issues in early childhood can lead to health problems. We assessed early childhood development (ECD) status and its factors, comparing data from two multiple indicator cluster surveys (MICS) in Bangladesh (3). Additionally, the study examined how socio-economic and health-related variables, including maternal education and childhood nutrition, affect enrollment in Early Childhood Education (ECE) programs, which are crucial for future academic success (4).

Recommended citation:
1. Hasan MN. (2020). "Cesarean delivery and early childhood diseases in Bangladesh: An analysis of Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS)." PLOS ONE. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0242864.
2. Hasan MN. (2022). "Association of household fuel with acute respiratory infection (ARI) under-five years children in Bangladesh." Front. Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.985445.
3. Hasan MN. (2023). "Early childhood developmental status and its associated factors in Bangladesh: a comparison of two consecutive nationally representative surveys." BMC Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-15617-8.
4. Hasan MN. (2024). "Effect of Childrens Socio-Economic and Health Status in Early Childhood Education Programs in Bangladesh: A Cross-Sectional Study of Mics-2019." SSRN (Preprint). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4664066.

COVID-19/SARS-COV-2

Published:

The Global Health Security Index (GHSI) and Joint External Evaluation (JEE) are prominent indices used to assess health security and related capabilities. We hypothesized that countries with higher GHSI or JEE scores would detect their first COVID-19 cases earlier and experience lower mortality compared to countries with lower scores (1). This study aimed to evaluate trends in the reported case fatality rate (rCFR) of COVID-19 over time, utilizing global data on COVID-19 cases and mortality to understand the impact of these indices (2). The COVID-19 pandemic, originating from Wuhan, China, has spread globally, prompting countries to implement various measures to control the outbreak. This research assessed knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding COVID-19 in Southeast and South Asia using a mixed-methods design, combining cross-sectional surveys and systematic reviews (3). The pandemic has significantly impacted public health, economies, and daily life, with a particular focus on evaluating the state of COVID-19 testing, recoveries, infections, and deaths from June to September 2022 (4). Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has proven effective in forecasting disease outbreaks in developed countries with centralized sewage systems. However, implementing WBE in developing countries like Bangladesh, where many live in rural areas with less defined sewage networks, is challenging. This study identified optimal sampling locations for rural Hotspot Based Sampling (HBS) and urban Drain Based Sampling (DBS) to enable effective WBE monitoring and forecast COVID-19 prevalence in Bangladesh (5). Additionally, we analyzed mutation patterns in 10,531 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, focusing on Delta and Omicron variants. The study examined mutation frequency, type, and the ratio of synonymous to non-synonymous mutations to understand the genetic diversity of the virus (6). Another study explored the effectiveness of WBE for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a house with COVID-19 patients, comparing wastewater samples with clinical specimens over a 30-day period. This approach offers a cost-effective, rapid, and non-invasive method for monitoring public health (7). Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring (WBEM) serves as a valuable surveillance tool during the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides early warning, tracks disease trends, detects genetic diversity, and identifies new variants from wastewater samples. Despite its advantages, clinical diagnostic tests (CDTs) remain the global standard but face challenges such as high costs and reporting biases. This review proposes a combined approach using both wastewater and clinical sample testing to enhance long-term nationwide surveillance (8). Comparative analysis of global reported cumulative case-fatality ratios (rCFRs) and excess mortality rates before and after the commencement of COVID-19 vaccination programs highlights the impact of vaccination on mortality rates in the top 20 countries with the highest vaccination rates, as well as in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the rest of the world (9). The pandemic, with 676.41 million confirmed cases and 6.77 million deaths across 231 countries as of February 7, 2023, has caused widespread disruption. Determining potential determinants, such as meteorological factors, is crucial for controlling the viruss spread. This study explores how COVID-19 cases and deaths have varied over time in relation to meteorological conditions (10). Additionally, the research investigates whether fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological conditions are linked to COVID-19 infection rates in Bangkok, Thailand, addressing the inconclusive evidence on environmental factors impact on infection rates (11).

Recommended citation:
1. Hasan MN. (2020). "The Global Health Security index and Joint External Evaluation score for health preparedness are not correlated with countries COVID-19 detection response time and mortality outcome." Epidemiology & Infection. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268820002046.
2. Hasan MN. (2021). "The Global Case-Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Has Been Declining Since May 2020." Am J Trop Med Hyg. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-1496.
3. Hasan MN. (2022). "Knowledge, Attitude and Practices Toward Coronavirus Disease (COVID- 19) in Southeast and South Asia: A Mixed Study Design Approach." Front. Public Health. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.875727.
4. Hasan MN. (2022). "Coexistence, Infections, and Deaths of SARS-CoV-2 in the South Asian Country of Bangladesh in June-September 2022." J Emerging Environmental Technologies and Health Protection. https://www.telegeco.gr/JEETHP5I2A1.pdf.
5. Hasan MN. (2022). "Wastewater-based epidemiological surveillance to monitor the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in developing countries with onsite sanitation facilities." Environmental Pollution. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2022.119679.
6. Hasan MN. (2023). "Variant-specific deleterious mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome reveal immune responses and potentials for prophylactic vaccine development." Front. Pharmacol.. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphar.2023.1090717.
7. Hasan MN. (2023). "A 30-day follow-up study on the prevalence of SARS-COV-2 genetic markers in wastewater from the residence of COVID-19 patient and comparison with clinical positivity." Science of The Total Environment. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159350.
8. Hasan MN. (2023). "An opinion on Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring (WBEM) with Clinical Diagnostic Test (CDT) for detecting high-prevalence areas of community COVID-19 infections." Current Opinion in Environmental Science & Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coesh.2022.100396.
9. Hasan MN. (2023). "The disproportionate case–fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world." IJID Regions. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.01.011.
10. Hasan MN. (2023). "Insight into vaccination and meteorological factors on daily COVID-19 cases and mortality in Bangladesh." Groundwater for Sustainable Development. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2023.100932.
11. Hasan MN. (2023). "Effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and meteorological factors on the daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Bangkok during 2020–2021, Thailand." Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cscee.2023.100410.

Monkeypox

Published:

Monkeypox disease (MPXD), caused by the zoonotic Monkeypox virus (MPXV), has spread globally, yet its relationship with climatic changes remains unstudied. Understanding the impact of meteorological factors such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, dew point, wind speed, and surface pressure on MPXV transmission is crucial. This study explores changes in MPXV cases over time and assesses how these meteorological variables may influence outbreaks (1). On July 23, 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared MPXD a global health emergency. A systematic review and meta-analysis of MPXD from 1970-2022 revealed an overall case fatality rate (CFR) and identified a potential increased risk for obese patients, though this study has limitations (2). Despite the WHOs withdrawal of the global health concern after a year, future cases may still arise, particularly among obese individuals (3). Additionally, countries with high Global Health Security Index (GHSI) scores showed a positive correlation with MPX cases and fatalities, suggesting the need for better health coverage and revised GHSI indicators (4).

Recommended citation:
1. Hasan MN. (2022). "Association between Global Monkeypox Cases and Meteorological Factors." IJERPH . https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192315638 .
2. Hasan MN. (2022). "An Estimation of Five-decade Long Monkeypox Case Fatality Rate: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis." J Pure Appl Microbiol. https://doi.org/10.22207/JPAM.16.SPL1.16.
3. Hasan MN. (2023). "Nexus between monkeypox and obesity: improved precautions and vigilance for obese patients." International Journal of Surgery: Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1097/GH9.0000000000000222.
4. Hasan MN. (2023). "Exploring the relationship between the Global Health Security Index and monkeypox: an analysis of preparedness and response capacities." J International Journal of Surgery: Global Health. https://doi.org/10.1097/GH9.0000000000000229.

Chronic Diseases/Noncommunicable Diseases

Published:

Aging presents a significant challenge in Bangladesh, with its impact progressively intensifying and leading to a range of serious consequences. Older adults often face new and complex health issues, with many suffering from chronic conditions. Research was conducted to assess the health status, depression, and daily functioning of elderly individuals in the Sylhet region of Bangladesh (1). Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) is a leading cause of illness and death in developing countries, including Bangladesh. Data was collected from elderly individuals in urban, rural, and ethnic areas of the Sylhet region using a stratified random sampling with proportional allocation. The study involved 230 participants aged 60 and above, including 110 women and 120 men. A multiple logistic regression model was employed to assess the major risk factors associated with CHD in this sample group (2). Additionally, a major contemporary health issue is the rising prevalence of chronic diseases among young adults. This study aimed to identify risk factors for chronic disease and determine the prevalence of such conditions in individuals aged 18 to 39 (3).

Recommended citation:
1. Hasan MN. (2019). "Association between self-rated health status and chronic diseases among the elderly in the Sylhet city of Bangladesh." Asian J Med Biol Res. https://doi.org/10.3329/ajmbr.v5i3.43588.
2. Hasan MN. (2020). "Factors Associated with Coronary Heart Disease among Elderly People in Different Communities." Statistics for Data Science and Policy Analysis. https://doi.org/110.1007/978-981-15-1735-8_16.
3. Hasan MN. (2023). "Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Chronic Diseases Among Young Adult in Bangladesh." Journal of Scientific Research. https://doi.org/10.3329/jsr.v15i1.60328.